THE JOINT ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE PROCESS FOR THE M/M/l QUEUE

We consider the M/M/1-queue and derive an explicit expression for the joint distribution of the number of arrivals and the number of departures in [0, t), given the number of customers initially present. The derivation is almost purely combinatorial, it avoids the use of generating functions, and immediately yields a simple probabilistic interpretation of the result.     

The ARCO decision: Inroads into the per se rule under Section 1 of the Sherman Act

In this study, the author analyzes the 1990 U.S. Supreme Court decision inAtlantic Richfield Company vs. USA Petroleum Company approving Atlantic Richfield’s maximum pricing plan improsed on its distributors (despite the Court’s recognition that theper se rule forbade such schemes). Theper se rule had been one of the last substantial measures of effective antitrust policy administered by enforcement authorities and the courts, perhaps even more fundamental than scrutiny of proposed mergers and predatory practices. That principle has been weakened by the ARCO decision. The author addresses some of the likely consequences of the ascendancy of the Chicago School and the NeoClassical theory generally in antitrust interpretation.     

As 2000 approaches: Millennial conjunctures and apocalyptic prophecy

The conjunctures in question are the approach of a new millennium and the likely sag of the economy into a long-wave (Kondratiev) trough as that millennium arrives. Will there be yet another wave of apocalyptic expectation? An answer is sought in the nature and extent of American prophecy belief and in historic associations between millennial surges and long-wave troughs.     

Introduction to “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.”

ABSTRACT

This paper offers the Introduction to the Special Issue “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.” We introduce the five papers. We distill three important lessons they offer for EU integration.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICY AT THE CROSSROADS—AGAIN

American agriculture is suffering from severe structural adjustments and from its worst financial depression since landmark price and income policies were legislated more than half a century ago. As much as one-third of the $220 billion in agricultural debt is now delinquent, nonaccrual, or subject to renegotiation. Land values have fallen precipitously in the past few years. Farm foreclosures are near 1930 Depression levels. The congressional debate over programs that could determine the course of U.S. agriculture for the remainder of the century began in the summer of 1985.     

Accelerating leadership performance at the top: Lessons from the Bank of America's executive on-boarding process

This article examines the critical role that on-boarding processes play in the successful development of executive leadership talent. It is based on an in-depth case analysis of one organization's sophisticated on-boarding intervention. Specifically, we explore the potential of these interventions both to pre-empt leadership failures and to accelerate the knowledge and relationships necessary to step into an executive role. Lessons are provided on designing on-boarding interventions for senior leaders.     

The hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Asian countries - evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach

ABSTRACT

This study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption – economic growth literature for 12 Asian countries. Our results from a recently developed hidden cointegration technique uncover rich and significant relationships between negative and positive components of the variables under consideration. In particular, we find evidence to support the neutrality hypothesis in five countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand), the growth hypothesis in four countries (India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan), and both growth and conservation hypotheses in three countries (China, Malaysia, and New Zealand). These findings suggest that appropriate economic policies should be elaborated on the basis of the country’s specific hydroelectricity consumption–growth nexus. Finally, our new evidence suggests that the lack of stable relationship between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth documented in previous studies for some of these countries could be due to the failure to properly account for the nonlinearity property in the data.     

Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularlyin the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theoryof uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks aboutthe direction he thought such a theory should take. I arguethat some modern innovations in the theory of probability allowus to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights.If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carryits weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that theconclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; intheir best formulation they may succeed with merely an appealto risk.     

Why Punish? Social reciprocity and the enforcement of prosocial norms

Recently economists have become interested in why people who face social dilemmas in the experimental lab use the seemingly incredible threat of punishment to deter free riding. Three theories with evolutionary microfoundations have been developed to explain punishment. We survey these theories and use behavioral data from surveys and experiments to show that the theory called social reciprocity in which people punish norm violators indiscriminately explains punishment best.JEL Classification: C91, C92, D64, H41 Correspondence to: Jeffrey P. CarpenterWe thank Carolyn Craven, Corinna Noelke and two referees for comments, and Middlebury College for financial assistance. In addition, Carpenter acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (SES-CAREER 0092953).